Predictive Pick of the Week

Super Bowl LIII is coming up this Sunday and Tom Brady is leading the Patriots for the 9th time. Do Goff and the Rams have what it takes to bring down this 5-time champion?

The Patriots are coming into the Super Bowl averaging 15 more points per game in the playoffs than in their last 3 regular season games; while the Rams are on a declining trajectory scoring, on average, one touchdown less per game.

The Patriot’s offense averaged 39 points and 510 yards of total offense in the post season with 68% of the yards coming through the air and 32% on the ground.  Ironically this is the exact percentage they had over the entire regular season when they averaged 27 points.  However, during the last part of the season they only averaged 24 points per game. 

The Rams’ offense averaged 28 points and 418 yards of total offense in the post season with 58% of the yards coming through the air and 42% on the ground.  This is a shift towards the ground game, seeing as in the entire regular season they averaged 33 points and 426 yards of total offense with 67% / 33% pass to run split.

If the Rams have a weakness on defense, it’s at the linebacker position; their strength lies at the defensive line positions which should allow them to get pressure on Brady. Although the pressure should limit him looking down field for quick strike scores, Brady is a master at taking what the defense gives him and exploiting the weakest link.  Look for James White to have a big day catching balls out of the back field, as well as quick hitting slants and out patterns from the Pats wide receivers.

Look for the Rams to establish the run early and often with Gurley and Anderson involved.  The Rams have shifted to a more balanced offense with respect to run vs pass compared to the regular season.  From establishing the rush early, the play action will allow Goff to be more effective in the passing game and hopefully ease his way into his 1st Super Bowl appearance.

Look for the Pats to come out quickly, utilizing up tempo offense and throwing the ball with short passes.  This helps Brady get the ball out of his hands quickly, effectively neutralizing the Rams excellent pass rush.  If the Patriots get up early, it could be a long day for Goff and the Rams.

Despite all of this, we believe Goff and the Rams don’t get intimidated by the big stage and playing a team like the Patriots.  Both offenses are the strength of the teams and the Defenses each have some weakness that these two talented teams will find a way to take advantage off.

LOCK of the WEEK – PAG is taking the “Over”

  • With the over under sitting at 56.5 for most of the week, there is too much offensive fire power on both teams to keep this under 57

Pick #2 – PAG likes the Pats minus the points.

  • The current line has the Pats favored by 2.5 – It’s our belief that it’s going to be a shoot out game, all the trends point towards a Patriots victory.  Goes against every ounce of my being, but the data tells the story.

Final Score – PAG sees a Pats victory 35- 31

  • Think this one is close all the way, no big leads or miracle comebacks.

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