Credit Card Product
Predictive Analytics Group has deep experience across the entire lifecycle of the credit card product. Areas of expertise include marketing campaigns (affinity and branded), response models, credit underwriting strategies, card activation, rewards programs, fraud strategies (new account, existing account & first person), authorizations strategies & treatment, retention, credit line management, early stage / late stage collections, loss mitigation and back end recovery. We also have additional experience managing all size co-brand and branded portfolios within Risk Management, Operations Management, Finance, Marketing, Partner Relationship Management, Forecasting and Provisioning.
We have practical experience and learned perspectives through numerous credit cycles and regulatory environment changes. We have experienced periods with high growth volumes and favorable performance, periods of flat growth or increased balance attrition timed with rising charge-offs and many scenarios in between. PAG have been considered experts in the credit card industry for quite a long time, speaking at several industry conferences, contributing to many industry roundtables and advising several start-ups on setting up credit card operations.
PAG will work with you to review, evaluate, design, implement or track card strategies across the entire product life-cycle, including model governance. Our experts work with you to address all of your needs from improving your marketing approach with better targeting, improve underwriting by optimizing approval rates across risk tiers, designing early fraud identification strategies and managing a respectable line assignment strategy, based on product, profitability and performance expectations, all the way through improving your account management strategies with a line progression policy, authorization approach, and general business policy alignment.
Our experience extends through the account management life cycle to collection operations and strategies, including early stage and late stage delinquency bubbles, increasing collector efficiency, optimized settlement strategies, and increased recovery rates on liquidated paper. We review and help understand account based and balance based performance vintages, help navigate the regulatory environment including vendor management, and promote the responsible use of portfolio curing to reduce delinquency.
Predictive Analytics Group are considered industry experts within partnership management from both the partner side and the bank side of the equation. The success behind effective partner relationships is to ensure that both sides of the relationship is accounted for when looking to optimize the product.
PAG works with several partners within the Travel & Entertainment industry, Sports Teams and Retail private label and co-brand relationships. We also have extensive experience managing large individual portfolios within the banking industry (including an individual portfolio of $30B in receivables) to managing the Risk Management function for a large multi-portfolio organization (totaling $22B in receivables and 50+ partner relationships), including direct relationships with the partners themselves.
Our goals working with partners are to:
- Ensure the value proposition of the product is in line with customer needs, financial goals and overall product construction
- Assist partners with contract negotiation, including the RFP process, existing contract extensions, product launches and product enhancements
- Review financial dynamics between the partner and their bank to ensure that the financial structure aligns to the business needs (i.e. account bounty, profit-share, revenue-share, basis points of sales, etc…)
- Help the partner understand the benefits of the product, including product movement, customer relationship, inventory management, rewards program compliment, revenue generation or an overall profit center
PAG also works extensively with banks that deal with partner portfolios to assist with relationship management, portfolio management, product optimization, value-prop evaluation and market assessments. Our goal is to help the banks ensure they are set-up for long-term success managing their relationships with their partners. In addition to partner management, we also have deep experience with private label and co-brand card strategies (please see Credit Card Product). We will also work with you through the RFP process of new and existing relationships, including market assessment, portfolio valuations, due diligence and general negotiation assistance.
Unsecured / Secured / Student LoansPredictive Analytics Group has extensive experience working with Unsecured and Student Loan portfolios, and lightly with Secured products, to build best-in-class lending operations. Our expertise includes working within large financial institutions managing major functions within the Prime and Sub-Prime loan types, working with Student Loan portfolios to optimize marketing analytics and underwriting strategies to improve overall portfolio profitability, and detailed projects with several start-ups designing Unsecured Loan products from the ground up. Fix term loans require firm risk management to be profitable and hit loss performance forecasts.
At PAG we make a concerted effort to understand your overall business goals, assess your risk appetite and review your capital position (and future capital targets) to meet your project needs. We have worked with companies to:
- Improve marketing response rates through response model development enhancements, and implement champion / challenger and test / control approaches to ensure a continued improvement of strategies over time
- Work with Student Loan portfolios to target the right customers, and the underwriting strategies to complement the marketing approach
- Work with the marketing team to optimize product placement and lead generation, including digital, direct mail, email, mass media and other outlets
- Score-card review, enhancements & model governance for underwriting processes
- Underwriting enhancements, whether automated or judgmental, including branch operations, call-center or system-based lending
- Evaluate portfolio mix to ensure overall credit quality aligns to long-term investment goals, cost-of-credit and provisioning needs
- Design a “from-scratch” end-to-end lending operation, including a marketing system, lending operating system (LOS), system-of-record (SOR) and operations center, including the strategies to manage each system and process. This includes ensuring everything meets current regulatory and compliance guidelines, internal compliance program development and risk policy guidelines
We understand the performance lift from “soft secured” to “hard secured” loans and we have leveraged internal score cards to responsibly manage repeat customer business / rewrites. In recent years, there has been a growing number of market place lenders (MPLs) in this space, which PAG has advised and consulted with several of them on their business growth strategies and recent hurdles surrounding compliance and loss forecasting hurdles. PAG ensures that we help you with responsible, profitable and sustainable loan growth that meets both you and your investor’s goals.
Auto ProductPAG is rich with experience within the Auto Lending space. Any risk leader can advise on how to grow sales and the management of auto inventory when times are good. It takes knowledge and experience to manage to LTV targets with the insight and understanding of how to diversify one’s portfolio vehicle type. It takes resolve to dig into the lower credit tiers and not chase “book to look” and “book to approve” rates that are impacted by adverse selection. In addition to understanding your overall product model ( ie: captive finance company, indirect or direct lending entity), we know that your relationship with the dealerships are paramount to your success. We understand the business management taking place with the F&I offices of the dealers that are typically invisible to the lenders without proper due diligence and research.
At PAG we have walked hand in hand with the auto product through the growth period experienced in the pre-2006 economic boom, through the impact of Hurricane Katrina devastation, during the 2006-2008 economic crises and beyond. We have management experience guiding an indirect and direct auto portfolio with varying risk tiers through credit / originations, sales incentives, collections / loss mitigation efforts, repossession strategies, remarketing strategies, and auction strategies. We have been onsite to large auctions (i.e. Manheim, CarMax, Barrett-Jackson, etc…), worked with repo vendors, managed both internal and external reconditioning processes, internal & external remarketing processes, understand when and if you should allow redemptions and have lived through exhaustive title audits to prove ownership of vehicles. PAG is there to help you optimize your overall business strategy and portfolio, whether you specialize in deep sub-prime or prime auto lending.
Mortgage / Home Equity
Since the 2006 economic downturn, the mortgage business has been heavily regulated. At PAG, we have been at the forefront of Risk Management navigating through consent orders, depreciating mortgage values, increasing foreclosure inventories, FFIEC compliance, differing state specific regulations, with varying loan performance through different geographic areas. We understand and practice sound origination strategies based on solid lending guidelines. We have practical experience with HAMP and FHA loans. We also know when to scale back. For example, PAG has made recommendations not to lend in some states due to strict legislation making it difficult to book profitable paper.
On the Home Equity product, we have looked at existing account performance where we are the first lien and used a combination of existing credit bureau and internal scorecards where applicable. PAG has applied economic indexes like HPI and Case Shiller in the credit underwriting process and worked with 3rd party vendors like Moody’s to make sure that we are using the most recent property value to ensure LTV ratios are not overly aggressive.
No other industry is as heavily regulated as the mortgage business in terms of compliance and audit. We have successfully navigated these waters and minimized fines and avoided media attention on practices. To name a few, PAG has witnessed the S/T and L/T portfolio impact of heavy adjustment of terms / deferment use and worked to improve portfolio curing guidelines to stave off regulatory scrutiny. We have successfully managed through audits with in depth looks at repossession legal notifications and we have experience with showing that businesses are compliant in their foreclosure processes.
The healthcare industry has been in a state of heavy change and evolution over the past decade. Regulations have and will continue to change, insurance industry experiences change, patterns change, and the data infrastructure environment changes. During these evolution’s, Predictive Analytics Group will help you:
- Optimize patient service
- Understand where to optimize hospital staffing
- Target the best strategies to manage administration expenses
- Identify which patients have high return rates and why
- Build dashboards / MIS reporting on patient history despite having multiple types of database technology platforms
Investing in modern technology that fit our client’s needs is what PAG specializes in. We understand the seasonal nature of the industry. Through our approach and focus on analytics, we enhance decision making and identify ways to minimize costs to improve patient outcomes. We can efficiently track services to improved billing, design and recommend appropriate real time / up to the minute MIS reporting for improved clinical support, and create models that filter through large stacks of data to find new patterns. We can better segment wellness programs to improve health quality and lessen unexpected patient volumes. With PAG, you can stay ahead of change.
Predictive Analytics Group helps you understand your data that ultimately will help you provide a top-notch customer experience and identify each customer’s preferences. This approach assists you with optimizing your bottom line profits and efficiencies. Data management allows us to organize, structure, segment, and profile your data, which in turn enables us to create deliverables allowing you to improve your brand loyalty and rewards programs. Our goal is to increase response rates and reduce costs through improved patron targeting by improved offer and channel selection. PAG will improve your understanding and assist with optimizing consumer demand, floor layouts and pricing strategies to increase profits and revenue.
Our deep experience utilizing data allows us to create predictive forecasts, identify industry trends, design workforce planning recommendations and provide management with actionable results. PAG evaluates each relationship to ensure it can provide our clients with best-in-class service, ensuring all necessary state licensing is in order and pricing plans that help you meet your goals. PAG manages performance to drive the bottom line, make recommendations to avoid lost revenue, and improve customer usage patterns to enhance the customer experience.
There is more to analytics than just understanding the data and how to analyze it. It is also about knowing “what” data you need to look at for each decision point in your daily business needs, AND how to consistently display and retrieve that data effectively and on time. With over 25 years of data and analytical experience across multiple industries, we know which metrics are a “need to know” and which metrics are a “nice to have”. We will help you tell a story that makes it easy to understand the data and trends that are occurring in your daily business.
Our goal is to provide you with a suite of deliverables that can be utilized across all levels of management and the business. Whether your needs are executive level dashboards or daily operational reports, in today’s competitive landscape we know the importance of having analysis ready first thing in the AM no matter what area of the country one resides in. At PAG, we have experience with producing monthly, weekly, daily, and real time reporting over various platforms and systems. Our goal is to ensure you have, at your fingertips, everything you need to navigate your regulatory and compliance reporting, operational reporting, financial reporting and Risk Management & Model Governance reporting needs.
PAG analysts have a track record of delivering targeted requirements which result in best-in-class reporting suites in timelines that meet your business needs. We execute & deliver results within budgets and on time, which help deliver you actionable data to make quality decisions. Our goal is to always provide you deliverables that generate what we call our “WOW Factor”. We provide specific guidance, can work with your in-house staff or bring in our own data scientists that have broad experience with multiple IT platforms. We adapt to your needs to generate portfolio analytics that will allow you to create your own “WOW Factor”.
Sports Analytics is an evolving market, proven to be here to stay. The need for sports analytics grows every season that passes, including sports organizations trying to increase ticket sales, merchandise movement and especially talent evaluation. Additionally, the fantasy sports market has transformed into a massive multi-billions dollar industry which is highly centered around analytics, especially forecasting. Predictive Analytics Group has been extremely effective in using data and analytics to navigate the market and be successful in predicting performance and trends within the sports world.
The saying “win at all costs” is not in the vocabulary of most sports organizations in today’s market. Using data and analytics to complement your industry experience gives you a leg up in finding that diamond in the rough and giving your organization the best chance of success. This includes large sports organizations evaluating talent for the upcoming draft, or the smaller entrepreneur trying to fit that last spot in his Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) lineup to stay below the cap. Being able to say “that dog can hunt” from a player performance perspective is an advantage every player in the market wants to have.
Your goal may be to put a product on display that you can be proud of and excites your fans, thus “putting folks in the seats”. PAG will partner with you by looking at historical data, identifying trends, using proprietary algorithms and developing a solid recommendation that fits your ultimate goals, which will lead to “game changing” results. To maintain a competitive advantage, understanding the data and knowing how to use it is critical. With PAG, you are bringing experts “off the bench &into the game” with a proven track record, across multiple industries, utilizing data to drive quality decisions that optimize profits and performance. We will work with you to create and enhance multi-channel marketing models to improve sales and fan attendance, identify trends in fan behavior to improve revenue and ultimately bring your fan engagement to the next level.
In addition to fan intelligence, talk to us about player and team analytics. This is the “wave of the future” in sports at all levels with new data analytics driving change. This includes DFS algorithms that can better help target player rankings and overall decision point analytics.
Business Consulting / Start Ups
Working through several recessions and economic booms over the past four decades, we have garnered experience and have lived through numerous business plans that have underwent successes and failures. Whether it was an ill-fated business model that found their niche and ultimately succeeded, to quality planned and executed business designs that were timed incorrectly, eventually failing due to some small hurdle or economic shift that could not be overcome or predicted. Predictive Analytics Group has the knowledge and experience through all facets of start-ups from the executive / partner level, down to the customer facing level within operations. We have helped successfully launch several start-ups as partners, consultants and advisory roles. We have had significant success with several players in the market today, helping them understand their business models holistically. Having experience as customer service agents, collectors and telemarketers all the way to Senior Executive level with P&L responsibility, we can help you formulate and plan your business model from the executive / partner level to the “feet on the ground experience” that gives senior management teams perspectives to use in their decision process.
PAG will work with you on goal setting, establishing milestones, setting expectations with investors (reasonable and aggressive), developing process flow maps, technology systems integration (design, implementation, and UAT testing),3rd party vendor management, operations management (ex: call center, VRU, letters, digital), staff allocation, product development, forecasting, and profit / loss impacts. In addition, our partners in the industry allow us to deliver the right vendors and partners to your door to meet your budgetary needs and to find you the right fit for your culture.
We partner with you to navigate each of your communication needs, from dealing with investors, working with vendors, contract negotiations and process design. We work with you on both the 5,000 ft. view and the ground-level view of your business. Your Goals become Our Goals. By understanding the lifecycle of your business, our goal is to provide you with an unbiased recommendation that meets your needs. At PAG, we welcome the challenge to meet these goals with you, as we take our clients success personally.
We have experience consulting and developing solutions in multiple diverse industries and have had success working in new niche opportunities where we have not had experience. Our experience and skills have helped us succeed in every venture and we look forward to partnering with you to meet every one of your goals. Below are some additional areas of experience, in addition to those explained in detail:
- Investment Banking (Private Equity & Venture Capital)
- Due Diligence
- Automotive Sales
- Motor Power sports
- Fin Tech
- Member Organization
- Radio Broadcasting
- Taxes / Accounting
- Financial Planning